December Claims Portal figures show decrease despite lifting of England-wide lockdown

Figures have been released by the Portal Company confirming the numbers of Claims Notification Forms ("CNFs") submitted in December 2020 for England and Wales. The figures showed a reduction in CNFs issued when compared to November 2020.

This may be surprising given that England was lifted out of a four week-long lockdown at the start of December. However, an examination of previous years' figures show a consistent and general trend of fewer claims in December compared to months prior. This may be due to a reduction in incidents giving rise to claims in previous months, or reluctance on the part of claimants and their representatives to commence claims during the festive season.

Monthly figures

The tables below show the comparison between both December 2020 and the month prior (November 2020), as well as a comparison to December 2019. As noted above, the month-to-month figures remain steady, and the year-on-year change is consistent, a similar comparison last month.

As can be seen from the graphs below, claims numbers have reduced in the last couple of months since the post-pandemic peaks of September and October (from April 2020 when the impact of the first lockdown was seen).

Yearly figures

As the total figures for the calendar year of 2020 are now concluded, a general comparison between 2020 and 2019 can be made. The decrease in CNFs issued in 2020 compared to 2019 is in line with the month-to-month comparisons – reductions of around 30% being the norm.

A comparison of the average general damages figures across RTA, EL Accident and PL claims between 2019 and 2020 show increases of 1.4% for RTA, 4.7% for PL claims, and 5.7% for EL accident claims.

What can we expect to see?

• In the first week of January, the UK Government reintroduced the most severe set of lockdown measures across England since the initial national lockdown in March 2020. These measures included the closure of schools save for the children of critical workers. The Welsh Government has stated that the risk in Wales is very high, with the risk alert at level 4. Given the impact of the first national lockdown on claims numbers in April and May, a further drop in claims numbers may be expected.
   
• However, a comparison of the Government’s data on vehicle usage indicates that all vehicle usage during the first week of the first lockdown was around 40% of a comparable week, whereas during the first week of the January 2021 lockdown this had increased to around 60%. Therefore, it would be unsurprising if claims numbers do not hit the lows of April and May 2020 in the next two sets of figures.
   
• As we identified in our review of October’s figures, there remains the possibility that the whiplash reforms may prompt a surge in claims in the months preceding. However, the reforms have been pushed back by at least one month to May 2021. Any impact caused by the delay and the continued impact of the pandemic has affected this will become clear in the months to come.